How the Daredevils can qualify for the semis with 7 wins

Assuming Delhi lose one and win one of their remaining two games and end up on 14 points, then what are the chances that they still make the semis.

These are the teams’ current net run rates.

Teams                                              Mat Won Lost Tied N/R Pts   Net RR
Royal Challengers Bangalore 13      7        6       0       0    14   +0.467
Chennai Super Kings                 12       6        6       0       0    12   +0.348
Delhi Daredevils                          12      6        6       0       0     12   +0.024
Rajasthan Royals                        13      6         7      0       0     12   -0.421
Deccan Chargers                         12      6         6      0       0      12   -0.438
Kolkata Knight Riders               12      5        7      0       0      10   -0.632

As we can see Delhi’s net run rate situation is quite unique. They are either too far behind (the net run rate of CSK and RCB) or sufficiently ahead ( of that of RR,DC and KKR). The gaps cannot be bridged either ways in a matter of two games. That could only happen, if Delhi either wins or loses both their games very convincingly. But in both scenarios net run rates will anyways not come into play. If they win both, they will automatically qualify and if they lose both, they are doomed.

This ensures that if DD end up on the same number of points with RCB and CSK, they will surely be lower placed in the points table. And on the flip side, they will continue to be ahead of DC, RR and KKR, if they have the same number of points as those teams.

Now let’s compare their chances against the other teams still jockeying for a semi-final spot, in the event of DD ending up with 7 wins.

RCB

RCB already have 14 points and a better net run rate than Delhi’s. So if DD also have 14 points, RCB will end up in a higher spot

CSK

CSK have a game against DD and one against KXP. If they win both, then Delhi can’t catch them. Even if they win one ( and I don’t see them losing both), they still end up ahead of Delhi

DC

DC have games against DD and KXP. They are on a roll and I will expect them to beat KXP. So if Delhi’s loss comes against DC, then they are doomed. If the Daredevils win, then will be ahead of DC.

RR

They have one game in hand and can at best get to 14 points, which wouldn’t be good enough to surpass the Daredevils.

KKR

Even if Kolkata win both games, they will just match Delhi’s points total and have an inferior net run rate. And in that case Delhi are safe.

Conclusion

The Deccan Chargers are the biggest threat to Delhi’s semi-final hopes.

Delhi will qualify if they beat DC and lose to CSK.

But if Delhi beat CSK and lose to DC, they will fall behind the Chargers in case the Hyderabad team beats KXP as well. In such a scenario, Delhi could still go through, if the Kings of Punjab beat the Super Kings of Chennai.

Therefore, the surest way Delhi can make the semis is by winning their last game against the Chargers at the Ferozeshah Kotla. Failing that they need to beat the Super Kings and hope that KXP wins atleast one of their remaining games.

Gautam Gambhir has been very critical of the Kotla off late. But it’s the comfortable wins racked on the same Kotla pitch which has put Delhi in a comfortable net run rate situation. Additionally, Delhi’s crucial match against Hyderabad is also at the Kotla. Considering all that, It’s imperative that the Delhi skipper quickly apologizes and makes up with his home stadium.