Much improved Delhi resemble the Deccan Chargers of IPL2

The fifth edition of the IPL has brought much needed relief relief. My favourite team – the Delhi Daredevils – are contenders once again. The overall TV ratings of the tournament may have gone down but they have skyrocketed in my household and I really pray that they stay that way.

The reasons for the change are easy to see. The batting is much improved. Sehwag has been Sehwag, Pietersen has played like the man who Vijay Mallya had in mind when he made the first 2 million bid in the IPL and Mahela Jayawardene adds a calm in the middle-order which Delhi have always lacked. Irfan Pathan has started to remind us why he was once batting up the order for India and all in all, this team is a far cry from the two man army they were last year.

The bowling department is also looking healthier. Pathan, Morkel and Umesh Yadav look a fearsome pace troika, as Mumbai found out recently. Nadeem has been a pleasant surprise and the likes of Ajit Agarkar and Avishkar Salvi have not been required too often.

Some glaring weaknesses remain though.

Delhi are a very top heavy side and carry many passengers in the side – players who cannot be expected to make a winning contribution. The lack of batting depth was exposed in the last game against Pune. And in spite of Nadeem’s encouraging performance, Daredevil fans wince every time the fourth or fifth bowler comes on.

But in spite of their lack of balance, Delhi can still feel reasonably confident of going all the way.

They just need to draw inspiration from the Deccan Chargers of IPL2, a team with similar lack of depth which ran the hot form of 6 players all the way to the title. Rohit Sharma, Herschelle Gibbs and Adam Gilchrist carried almost all the batting load and RP Singh, Pragyan Ojha and Fidel Edwards did the heavy lifting in the bowling department.The team from Hyderabad  got very little from their other players but the superb form of their super six carried them past the finish line.

A lack of depth can derail a team in a test series or a 50 over tournament. But teams can manage in the compressed Twenty-20 format as long as the big guns are firing.

Delhi have shown so far that they can copy Deccan’s template.  They can manage with their limitations and emulate the Chargers if their big guns – the  likes of Sehwag, Jayawardene, Pietersen, Pathan, Umesh Yadav and Morne Morkel – can continue to perform at high levels right throughout the tournament. This is exactly what Deccan’s super six managed to do.

There is another ominous portent for the Delhi Daredevils.

This team has one more thing in common with the Deccan side of season 2 – the presence of Venugopal Rao. Venu is much reviled but he could well be the lucky charm and become the first player to win IPL titles with two different but very similar teams.

Figuring out the playing eleven for the Daredevils

Now that most of the available players have been snapped up, and only a handful of decent uncapped players remain up for grabs, we have a fair idea of the squads. We can now engage ourselves in figuring out the likely playing elevens. So without much ado, lets start with our favorite team – the Delhi Daredevils.

The playing eleven needs to have 7 Indian players. As of now, the Delhi squad has 9 such players. Out of them, we can leave out Unmukt Chand for now. We sincerely hope that our team doesn’t get into a situation where they need to play him.

That leaves 8 players fighting for 7 place – hardly a difficult task for the coach. Owing to the paucity of batsmen in the side, it is likely that one of the bowlers will face the cut. That means one amongst the lot of Umesh Yadav, Agarkar, Dinda and Vikas Mishra. Irfan could join the group if he struggles with the bat. The team management would dread such a scenario, having shelled out 1.9 million dollars for the Baroda all-rounder, and for their sake as well as ours, we hope that Irfan re-discovers his touch.

In addition to the 3 bowlers, the other Indian players would be Sehwag, Venugopal Rao, Naman Ojha and Irfan Pathan.

We now need 3 batsmen and one bowler from the foreign contingent. Any of these places could also be take by one of the all- rounders.

If Vikas Mishra doesn’t play then Roelof Van Der Merwe has a good chance of getting picked. He can bowl his full quota of overs and is a floater in the batting order who can be counted upon to get his runs quickly.

Morne Morkel is an automatic selection as the best bowler in the squad and of the best in the world on current form. He is also a handy batsman who could add meat to the lower order.

The team now has five bowlers – Morkel, Mishra or Van Der Merwe, Pathan and 2 out of Yadav, Dinda and Agarkar. Ideally, the team should have one more all-rounder to give the captain an additional bowling option in case one of the bowlers gets taken apart.

The all rounders place is a toss up between James Hopes and Andrew McDonald. Hopes has the edge both as a batsman and a bowler.

David Warner, Aaron Finch, Travis Birt and Colin Ingram will vie for the two remaining places in the side. Warner looks a certainty based on past performances.

The combination will change based on the opponents, the nature of the pitch and the form of the players.

But on paper, the most likely eleven for the Daredevils should look something like this.

Sehwag, Warner, Naman Ojha, Birt/Finch/Ingram, Venugopal Rao, James Hopes/Van Der Merwe, Pathan, Morkel, Umesh Yadav, Dinda, Agarkar/Mishra.

The holes in the team become apparent once we look at the likely playing eleven. The team could do well with an upgrade for Venugopal Rao and Agarkar/Mishra. If we can manage to do that, we will have a very competitive side which take on the best sides.

We hope the team management can find these upgrades from amongst the remaining uncapped players.

Should the Delhi Daredevils retain any players for IPL 4?

The cost of retaining 4 players would be 4.5 million dollars. Let’s look at the current cost of the players Delhi would want to retain. These are the names most of the fans also want.

Virender Sehwag – 833,750

Gautam Gambhir – 725,000

Amit Mishra – NA

Ashish Nehra – NA

Dinesh Karthik – 525,000

Dirk Nannes – NA

AB de Villiers – 300,000

Daniel Vettori – 625,000

The salary will go up from 6 million for the last 3 editions to 10 million for IPL 4. It will be reasonable to assume that the cost of the most wanted players would almost double. The likes of Tendulkar, Pollard, Dhoni, Symonds and Shane Watson would fall in this category. They can become the franchise player around which the team can be built.

Unfortunately, none of the players in the current Delhi squad falls in this category. And that is true for Virender Sehwag as well. His record in the IPL and other twenty-20 cricket isn’t that awe inspiring. That is why the squad retention formula is unfair for teams like Delhi who don’t have any super expensive players and boon for the likes of CSK and MI.

Delhi has a number of middle rung players whose value will appreciate by roughly 50 %. Therefore, retention will only make sense for Delhi if they had 4 players whose current cost was around 3 million and they were the incumbents Delhi wanted to hold on to. I cannot identify 4 such players.

One needs to analyze whether the same players will cost more or less in the IPL auction.

By not retaining anyone, Delhi will have the largest kitty to play around with in the auction and that will come in handy when we go after the match-winners that we lacked in the last 3 editions.

There is another reason why Delhi should rebuild (by not retaining anyone).

Delhi had one of the finest sides in the last 3 editions and was always near the top but they always faltered in the critical games. They lost two semi-finals and winner takes all game in the third season. Would you rather stick with the same guys and continue be just good or change the backbone and the DNA of the side and go for the jugular. I would prefer the latter.

This changed philosophy will be implemented by getting at least a couple of the big time stars – match winners who will win us the games we have always ended up losing. This will not be easy. Such players are few and most of them are already part of other teams – and as such will not be available for bidding. But a few of them will be and Delhi will have to go after them aggressively. And this is where the extra 4.5 million will come in handy.

But there is an alternate argument as well.

There is only a limited pool of quality Indian players. If every other team retains 3 Indian players, then 21 of them would be gone by the time the auction begins. There will be a big fight for the remaining Indian players. That would shoot up the value of the likes of Sehwag and Gambhir and Delhi’s strategy of not retaining anyone would rebound on them.  Delhi would either end up paying more for Indian players and not have the top class foreigners or get their match- winners but struggle to fill the 7 spots for Indian players. Either way it will be disaster.

But is this likely to happen?

Or will teams suffer from the same dilemma as the Daredevils and take a chance in the auction.  Let’s try and predict the strategy of the other sides and get a sense of the top Indian players who would be available for auction. That will tell us how risky it will be for Delhi to retain no one and go all out in the auction.

Players in bracket are the ones we assume they will retain. We are also assuming that by the time the season begins, somehow KXP and RR will be back in the fray. If they are not, then even better – all their players would be available.

MI (Sachin, Harbhajan and Zaheer and Pollard/Malinga) – Abhishek Nayar, Saurabh Tiwary, Ambati Rayudu, Shikhar Dhawan, R Sathish and Dhawal Kulkarni.

CSK (Dhoni, Raina, Badrinath or Ashwin or Murali Vijay) – At least 2 out of Badrinath, Ashwin and Vijay, Parthiv Patel, Balaji, Gony, Shadab Jakati and Sudeep Tyagi.

KXP – This is another team which will find it difficult to identify 3 Indians and one foreigner who are worth 4.5 million and as a result everyone will be available. Yuvraj, Chawla, Sreesanth, Irfan Pathan, Ramesh Powar and VRV Singh.

KKR – They are in the same boat as KXP- Ganguly, Ishant, Dinda, Jaidev Unadkat, Manoj Tiwary, Wridhiman Saha, Murali Karthik and Agarkar

DC (They could consider retaining Rohit Sharma, Pragyan Ojha, RP Singh and Andrew Symonds. This is a quartet worth 4.5 million. Their international form might be patchy but they have been superb in the IPL) – T Suman, VVS Laxman and Harmeet Singh.

RR (Could possibly go with Yusuf Pathan, Ravindra Jadeja, Naman Ojha and Warne or Watson. This is a money conscious side which doesn’t prefer to get into a bidding game) – Munaf Patel and Siddhartha Trivedi.

DD – Sehwag, Umesh Yadav, Gambhir, Dinesh Karthik, Ashish Nehra, Amit Mishra, Pradeep Sangwan and Rajat Bhatia.

RCB ( Could go with Anil Kumble, Virat Kohli, Manish Pandey or Robin Uthappa and KP or Kallis or Ross Taylor) – Manish Pandey or Robin Uthappa, Dravid, Vinay Kumar, Pankaj Singh and Abhimanyu Mithun

There are around 45 players available and that is the minimum number required to just fill the quota of 7 Indians in the playing eleven for each team. As a result, the bidding will be intense and major money will be thrown around for the Indians.

Delhi could still make this work – provided they play the auction well and do their scouting well.

They have done both well in the past. They had one of the strongest and deepest sides in the last 3 editions and managed to do that without overpaying for anyone. They got bargains for both Indians and foreign players. Case in point being the likes of Gambhir, Karthik, Collingwood, Mohd Asif and McGrath.

They also unearthed unknown or less well-known players who served them well. Umesh Yadav, Pradeep Sangwan, David Warner and Dirk Nannes fall in this category.

A repeat performance will ensure that Delhi can bid aggressively for the big guns and fill the rest of the squad with bargains and new talent. This was the route taken by the Chargers in season 2 and 3.

Delhi has their destiny in their own hands. They can either play safe or take a riskier approach to build a stronger side. And depending on that, they can decide whether to retain 4 players or go all out in the IPL player auction.

The player retention formula for IPL4 makes no sense at all

We finally know the player retention formula that will be used for the 2011 IPL Season.

Each of the existing teams will be allowed to retain up to 4 players with a maximum limit of three Indian players and there will be fixed salary cap amount that will be deducted for each player retained, irrespective of the actual salary paid to that player. The new teams of Pune and Kochi will also be allowed to pick 4 players before the players are auctioned for the 2011 season. These players should not have been part of any of the eight teams for the first 3 seasons. The same salary cap amounts will be deducted for these players.

Part of the logic for the player retention formula seems to be – ostensibly – to create a level playing field; to ensure that the new franchisees are not at a disadvantage as compared to the existing sides. This seems to be the reason why, the earlier formula – of retaining 4 Indian and 3 foreign players – has been dumped. Not that it has pacified the supporters of the new sides, who feel that the current number is still too high and the retention formula has been tailored for the benefit of CSK and MI, so that they can retain MS Dhoni and Sachin Tendulkar respectively.

Is the need for a level playing field justified?

No, and for the simple reason that well, new teams are ‘NEW’. They have the leeway to go through the learning curve and learn the ropes of building a successful franchisee and competitive cricket team. They are starting from scratch. They can afford to make mistakes. They are not expected to challenge for the title right away. But that is not the case with the older sides. They cannot go through another round of building their teams from scratch and undoing whatever good work they have done in the last three years. Their teams are under pressure to win now. They are not in the same boat as the newer sides. So why create a level playing field then?

Look back on the last Champions League. The IPL sides went from hopeless also-rans in the first edition to eventual champions in the second edition. That happened because an additional year of playing with each other improved team chemistry and moulded the players into a unit. We now have 8 teams who have all travelled a long way towards becoming well-knit competitive sides. The presence of such sides leads to fascinating cricket. We love to see individual performers but there is nothing more exciting than watching two sides play a competitive high quality cricket match. By trying to create a level playing field, we are undoing all the cricket knowledge that teams have acquired over the last three years.

We are also punishing the good sides and rewarding the poor ones. A team like CSK has fine tuned its strategy of playing all rounders and three spinners. They have the resources to execute this strategy to perfection. Others like MI and DC have been rewarded for taking a chance with domestic talent. On the other hand KXP is stuck with a sulking, over-weight Indian star and an Indian international paceman whose theatrics are self destructive. CSK has a clear advantage over KXP. This advantage was not built overnight. It was the result of careful planning and hard work done over three years. But in trying to create a level playing field, this advantage will be gone in a jiffy.

In the current formula, the cap figure allocations for retained players are completely illogical. How can the actual salary differ from the cap figure? There is no precedent in the world of professional sports for such an allocation. More than anything else, it is this allocation which gives an undue advantage to CSK and MI and any other side which has players on very high salaries and plans to retain them. It will penalize teams which retain players on lower salaries. MI could retain Pollard as their second player. Pollard’s salary will easily be more than the cap number allocated for the second player (1.3 million) and that gives the team from Mumbai an unfair advantage. They could easily end up over-utilizing their player retention cap.

Now that we agree that a level playing field is not required, what changes should have been made in the player retention formula; other than scrapping the fixed cap allocations?

To do that, let’s first look at how this works in the professional leagues in North America – the IPL is loosely based on them in terms of allowing new teams in the league and having a need to redistribute talent.

When new teams come in, there is an expansion draft. Each of the current teams is supposed to nominate players for the expansion draft. The number of players nominated is generally close to 30% of the roster – say 4 or 5 player when your squad strength is 14. All the nominated players go into the hat and the new teams, called expansion sides pick from it. The cap number depends on the salary given to them. The players who remain unselected in the expansion draft are free to go back to their original teams. Everything else stays the same. The regular draft happens for new players coming into the league, players get transferred and free agents pick and choose new teams for themselves. You don’t turn the league on its head to accommodate a new team. You give the new sides a bunch of players to get started with. The newer teams get high draft picks so that they can get the best of the new players joining the league.

If we were to borrow from American sports, then the current teams should have been allowed to retain up to ten of their current players (broken into 4 foreign players, 3 Indian internationals and 3 from the domestic players category) or nominate 4 foreign players and 4 Indian players for the expansion draft. This is just one set of numbers. The governing council could have come up with another set but care must have been taken to ensure that the current teams retain their core and don’t have to undergo a major transformation.

What else could have inspired the decision to retain 4 players only?

For one, it will lead to another cracker of an auction with almost all the players going back into the pool. The team owners love the auction and the BCCI will be giving them another chance to play their favourite game. While the owners are going to love it, the fans will hate it. The massive allegiance changing exercise could lead to temporary insanity. The apparel companies will be smiling. Diehard fans will need to get new replica jerseys. I will have to re-write the article I wrote about the players the Daredevils should retain under the 4 Indians and 3 foreigners policy.

The men who run the IPL keep saying it’s inspired by the NBA. I don’t see how. Well, unless they are referring to the cheerleaders.

Can Sehwag and Dilshan play together for the Daredevils now?

We are now almost over all the brouhaha that stemmed from Suraj Randiv’s deliberate no-ball to deny Virender Sehwag a much deserved century. But this episode isn’t over for two of the main characters and the IPL side which employs them both. The Delhi Daredevils, Virender Sehwag and Tillekratne Dilshan have an important decision to make before the teams are finalized for the next IPL season.

There is no denying the fact that Randiv’s act was extremely unsporting and Virender Sehwag was non-too-pleased about it. It is also now known that the origins of the wicked act can be traced back to Tillekratne Dilshan’s brain. It’s reasonably safe to assume that Sehwag and Dilshan haven’t got together for a drink after the match and won’t be doing so in the near future either.

This raises the important question – can the two co-exist harmoniously in the Delhi Daredevils side as the team attempts to recover from its dismal showing in season 3?

This is a question which has to be answered collectively by the two players and the team management.

The frightening scenario for the team is this.

Suppose both end up playing for Delhi next season. Then there will be times when the two will be at the crease together. In such a situation, it is likely that Sehwag will have to be required to run hard for Dilshan’s runs. If he does that, he could end up helping Dilshan get to a 50 or even a 100 – a milestone he was denied in the most unsporting manner possible. Is it impossible to fathom that the devil will take over Sehwag and he will find it convenient to simply run Dilshan out?

And what if the Delhi fans( most of whom are Indian and Sehwag fans) decide to heckle Dilshan? Fans from other teams could join in as well.

Do the Daredevils want to take that chance ?

The easy way out is to cut Dilshan and retain Sehwag. But in doing so, the Daredevils will be letting go of a fine T-20 player – the kinds it is difficult to find and they can ill afford to lose.

Cant they appeal to the players’ professionalism and their desire to win and ensure that they bury the hatchet and join forces for the common cause?

They can take heart from the example of Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo.

The Portuguese tricked the referee into sending off his club mate at the quarter final stage of the 2006 World Cup. England ended up losing and Rooney was vilified by the English fans. Man Utd and Alex Ferguson faced the same dilemma that is now facing the Daredevils. But Fergie didn’t care if Ronaldo was persona non grata in England after the match. He protected both players loyally and somehow managed to get them to forget the World cup episode and work together for the club. They ended up winning the League title for United.

So, can the Daredevils take heart from Man Utd’s example and replicate their success?

The answer, sadly, for Daredevils supporters like me, looks more like a no. For the simple reason that we don’t have anyone closely resembling Alex Ferguson in the Delhi side. He had spotted and nurtured the careers of both Ronaldo and Rooney and had a father figure like influence over them. Moreover, professional leagues are far more important for a footballer ( as compared to a cricketer) and being at Manchester United was quite clearly the best situation for both Ronaldo and Rooney.

Dilshan and Sehwag are in a far different situation. Their performances in the IPL have no bearing on their international careers. Dilshan could easily join one of the new franchisees. They don’t have the motivation to stick together and aren’t going to gain a lot, in personal terms, from the fruits of their combined efforts.

Which means that the Daredevils would be taking a huge gamble by deciding to stick with both of them.

Delhi’s 4 Indians and 3 Foreigners to be retained for 2011.

Now it’s becoming increasingly likely that the older teams ( including our beloved Daredevils) will be allowed to retain 4 Indian and 3 foreign players for the 2011 season . This also means that some of the arguments and selections made in one of our previous posts now become irrelevant. Never mind. We will re-plan for 2011 based on the new set of circumstances.

First a disclaimer. We are going to make our picks based on the performance of the players in the IPL, with larger weights assigned to the performances in India. After all future editions are also going to be played on the Indian wickets.  We are not going to be buoyed by the performance of any player in the other formats of the game. This has to be done objectively. We need to do a lot better in 2011.

First the 4 Indian players.

Virender Sehwag is an absolute certainty. The other can’t miss is Amit Mishra. The two have been our best batsman and best bowler over the last two editions respectively. That leaves two spots.

The team has three international players – Gautam Gambhir, Dinesh Karthik and Ashish Nehra and picking two of them seems to be the obvious choice. But at the same time, the precocious talent of Umesh Yadav cannot be ignored.

In terms of past performance alone, Nehra and Karthik should be retained but we will also have to consider the foreign players that will be retained and how easily replaceable a player is ( meaning are there enough similar players available).

By that argument, retaining Karthik becomes a necessity. It will be most difficult to find a good wicket keeper batsman. Almost all the good ones are already taken. The dearth is evident from the fact that Mumbai haven’t been able to find a good glove man. The availability of the Australians, Tim Paine and Brad Haddin is also a  big question mark.

Quality Indian pacers are also a rare breed. There is absolutely no one to step into Nehra’s shoes. Losing Nehra will break the formidable opening pair of Nehra and Nannes. This pair has been one of the biggest pluses for Delhi in the last two editions.

That will mean that we will lose Gambhir and Umesh Yadav, unless we can successfully bid for them.  Replacing them will be relatively easier than replacing Nehra and Karthik. Steady batsmen and medium pacers are a fairly abundant species. Moreover, Gambhir is on an expensive contract and excluding him will free up a large amount of cap space as well. This should be sufficient to get a top batsman.

Now for the 3 foreign players

Dirk Nannes has to be retained. Period. Will not even bother arguing his case.

That means at this stage we have one batsman, one wicket-keeper batsman and three bowlers.  So, we will try filling up the remaining two slots with batmen or all-rounders. The options, though are fairly limited.   Based on past performance, the choice is between Paul Collingwood, David Warner, Daniel Vettori and Farvez Maharoof. Others like AB de Villiers, Tillekratne Dilshan and Andrew McDonald have simply been too disappointing.

Daniel Vettori should get the nod; quite simply because he is the best T-20 spinner in the world.  Delhi should also be looking for a new captain (after the disappointing leadership of Gautam Gambhir) and Vettori is well suited for the job.

The final slot is a throw-up between Collingwood and Warner. There is little to choose between the two. Collingwood can fill  the crucial number six  position, whereas Warner has the makings of  a T-20 legend. And both won games for the Daredevils with the bat.

I will finally go with Warner. The prospect of Sehwag and Warner opening together is too tantalizing to pass.

So our final list is

Virender Sehwag, Dinesh Karthik, Amit Mishra, Ashish Nehra, David Warner, Daniel Vettori and Dirk Nannes.

Hopefully, they will form the core of a great Daredevils team in IPL 2011.

Delhi Daredevils Team Grades for IPL 2010

The scale

5 – Outstanding
4- Good
3 – Average
2- Below Average
1- Hopelessly bad
x- Not worth rating

Please note that the ratings for a player are based on the expectations from a player of his category. Therefore, an under 23 player could have a better rating than an Indian international, despite having a worse absolute performance; because the expectations from an under 23 player are lower than an Indian international.

The ratings are not just based purely on statistics but have also factored in the number of significant performances of each player; a significant performance being one which influenced the outcome of a game. Example being the 30 odd scored by Mithun Manhas against Chennai at Chepauk.

Virender Sehwag -3

Gautam Gambhir -2

David Warner – 3

Ashish Nehra – 4

Dirk Nannes – 5

Tillekratne Dilshan – 1

AB de Villiers – 1

Paul Collingwood – 4

Mithun Manhas – 3

Daniel Vettori – 2

Amit Mishra – 5

Kedar Kadhav – 3

Dinesh Karthik – 3

Moises Henriques – 3

Farvez Maharoof – 3

Pradeep Sangwan – 4

Rajat Bhatia – 3

Yogesh Nagar – 2

Saurabh Ladda – 2

Andrew McDonald – 1

Umesh Yadav – 4

Yo Mahesh – 3

Tejasawi Yadav – X

What the Delhi Daredevils need to do for next year?

The easiest way to figure this out is to simply look at all things that went wrong in IPL3.

Batting

Collective Failure

First and foremost the batting which let us down time and time again, especially when chasing.

That the Delhi team has just one batsman in the top 20 run getters is clearly indicative of the collective failure. Out of the 4 semi-finalists, Chennai had 4 batsmen in the top 20, while the other 3 sides had three each.

AB de Villiers and Tillekratne Dilshan

Amongst the batsmen, the biggest disappointments were AB de Villiers, Tillekratne Dilshan and the various domestic players who were tried in the number six position.

After failing in the first edition in India, Dilshan and de Villiers had impressed in South Africa. Back in India, their form nosedived horrendously, pointing perhaps to an inability to adapt to Indian conditions. Future editions are going to be played in India only and Delhi cannot afford to have international batsmen who struggle on the slow sub-continent pitches. The South African has been known to struggle against spinners and was all at sea in this year’s IPL. On the other hand, Tillekratne is not known to have any such weaknesses and his struggles can probably be attributed to a temporary loss in form. Taking that into account, Delhi should persist with the Sri Lankan and find a replacement for de Villiers.

Lacking another quality Indian batsman

The form of the domestic batsman was also a concern and needs to be addressed. Mithun Manhas has been a dutiful servant of Delhi cricket but he is limited and cannot fill the crucial number six position. Amongst the others, Kedar Jadhav played one good innings while Yogesh Nagar never looked like he belonged to this level.

Delhi’s shortage of quality domestic batsmen is of their own doing. In the last two years, they have shipped out Shikhar Dhawan and Manoj Tiwary – two players who have great domestic records and have been India probables – but have never replaced them with a batsman of the same ability. The lack of another quality Indian batsman also means that there is no one worthy enough to replace the trio of Sehwag, Gambhir or Karthik, if one of them is injured or out of form.

While finding the batsman will be a priority, it won’t be easy; especially given that there will be two more teams in 2011 and everyone will be chasing the available players. Delhi will have to target the out of contract players aggressively; try convincing someone like Virat Kohli to return home or offer someone like Abhishek Nayar (on the bench mostly for Mumbai) a chance to play regularly. Failing all of that, they will simply have to try and unearth another gem from somewhere – like they did with Umesh Yadav this year.

All –rounders

Technically, the Daredevils had 5 international and one domestic all-rounder in their ranks but didn’t have a single one who could be called world class; capable of winning games with bat or bowl – someone in the same category as a Kieron Pollard, Andrew Symonds, Albie Morkel, Shane Watson, Jacques Kallis, Angelo Mathews or Jacob Oram. Almost all the other sides have one and Delhi could definitely do with one. The best place to look for one would be in Australia or South Africa. Getting someone like Mitchell Jonson could be a real coup. Moises Henriques has the potential to be one and the Daredevils will be well advised to hold onto him.

Bowling

Delhi’s brightest spot in this year’s IPL. The fast bowling department is well-staffed with a pair of internationals and two young Indians with a bright future. In Mishra and Vettori, Delhi have two wonderful spin bowlers but both of the them take the ball away from right-handers and Delhi will need someone who can bring it in – an off-spinner that is. They have Sehwag and Dilshan but a specialist is required. This will give the side enough flexibility to tackle any situation and any opposition. The best man to fit the bill would be England’s Graeme Swann, who is a capable lower order batsman as well.

Outlook

The Delhi Daredevils already has a very fine squad. In spite of the poor form of their batsman, they very nearly made the semi-finals for the third time running. There are a few gaps, however and a few additions could transform the side from a good to a great one. We trust that the team management would have taken note and will do the needful.

There is more than just a semi-final spot at stake for Delhi against Deccan

If Punjab beat Chennai, then Delhi would be assured of a semi-final spot before they take on the Deccan Chargers at home. It will save them the prospect of going into a pressure cooker, winner takes all game against the red-hot team from Hyderabad. But Delhi will be advised to treat this game as one, if they intend to finally break their semi-final hoodoo and make the IPL finals.

And here’s why

Because if they win, they will finish second in the points table and avoid the mighty Mumbai Indians in the semis. The Daredevils have been convincingly beaten by the Indians in both their league encounters and should go all out to avoid their nemesis in the semis. MI will be an even tougher nut to crack because the semis are in Mumbai and the Indians are virtually unbeatable at home.

A defeat to DC will also mean that the Daredevils will go into the semis short on confidence and low on form, having lost 4 out of their final 5 games and limping to a win in the fifth. A win on the other hand will give them a two match winning streak over two quality teams and equip the side with loads of self-belief before the knock-out stages. The difference in the state of mind could make all the difference as Delhi will attempt to make the finals for the first time.

By beating DC, Delhi will avoid Mumbai in the semis and be in the right frame of mind as they approach the semi-finals. Together, it will improve their chances of making the finals substantially.

How the Daredevils can qualify for the semis with 7 wins

Assuming Delhi lose one and win one of their remaining two games and end up on 14 points, then what are the chances that they still make the semis.

These are the teams’ current net run rates.

Teams                                              Mat Won Lost Tied N/R Pts   Net RR
Royal Challengers Bangalore 13      7        6       0       0    14   +0.467
Chennai Super Kings                 12       6        6       0       0    12   +0.348
Delhi Daredevils                          12      6        6       0       0     12   +0.024
Rajasthan Royals                        13      6         7      0       0     12   -0.421
Deccan Chargers                         12      6         6      0       0      12   -0.438
Kolkata Knight Riders               12      5        7      0       0      10   -0.632

As we can see Delhi’s net run rate situation is quite unique. They are either too far behind (the net run rate of CSK and RCB) or sufficiently ahead ( of that of RR,DC and KKR). The gaps cannot be bridged either ways in a matter of two games. That could only happen, if Delhi either wins or loses both their games very convincingly. But in both scenarios net run rates will anyways not come into play. If they win both, they will automatically qualify and if they lose both, they are doomed.

This ensures that if DD end up on the same number of points with RCB and CSK, they will surely be lower placed in the points table. And on the flip side, they will continue to be ahead of DC, RR and KKR, if they have the same number of points as those teams.

Now let’s compare their chances against the other teams still jockeying for a semi-final spot, in the event of DD ending up with 7 wins.

RCB

RCB already have 14 points and a better net run rate than Delhi’s. So if DD also have 14 points, RCB will end up in a higher spot

CSK

CSK have a game against DD and one against KXP. If they win both, then Delhi can’t catch them. Even if they win one ( and I don’t see them losing both), they still end up ahead of Delhi

DC

DC have games against DD and KXP. They are on a roll and I will expect them to beat KXP. So if Delhi’s loss comes against DC, then they are doomed. If the Daredevils win, then will be ahead of DC.

RR

They have one game in hand and can at best get to 14 points, which wouldn’t be good enough to surpass the Daredevils.

KKR

Even if Kolkata win both games, they will just match Delhi’s points total and have an inferior net run rate. And in that case Delhi are safe.

Conclusion

The Deccan Chargers are the biggest threat to Delhi’s semi-final hopes.

Delhi will qualify if they beat DC and lose to CSK.

But if Delhi beat CSK and lose to DC, they will fall behind the Chargers in case the Hyderabad team beats KXP as well. In such a scenario, Delhi could still go through, if the Kings of Punjab beat the Super Kings of Chennai.

Therefore, the surest way Delhi can make the semis is by winning their last game against the Chargers at the Ferozeshah Kotla. Failing that they need to beat the Super Kings and hope that KXP wins atleast one of their remaining games.

Gautam Gambhir has been very critical of the Kotla off late. But it’s the comfortable wins racked on the same Kotla pitch which has put Delhi in a comfortable net run rate situation. Additionally, Delhi’s crucial match against Hyderabad is also at the Kotla. Considering all that, It’s imperative that the Delhi skipper quickly apologizes and makes up with his home stadium.